So you, the reader, might be wondering why I post the market analysis on here with the market performance for the day. This is normally not an analysis but more of a recap of the days market direction. The main reason is because this is my trade journal and I want to look back as many days as I’d like and see what the DOW and the market did and how far it fell or rose.
Additionally, there’s no other place that will archive it in numbers. Sure you can look at the daily chart on the stockcharts.com site of many other site, but you can see the exact numbers nicely listed.
Anyway, it was a sudden move towards the end of the day. If I had held my position it would have been a nice profit for that effort. But from the normal events of the day, it just seemed those options would expire and the entire premium would be lost. So I thought to just sell at loss. And then it rallies. Oh well, next time, I’ll just hold. Additionaly, being expiration day didn’t help.
I’ve gotten good advice on how to daytrade. I will follow it as much as possible.
So it was a red day. Many traders were thinking that it would be a green day. However, due to GM bailout and auto bailout plan just stalling, the uptrend was broken past noon and it just went down. Twice as much as the previous low in the day. Around noon, it seemed as if the DOW was going to be green by end of day. Not so in the end.
This is the major reason why bailouts just don’t work. First, they cause undue burden. Next many others line up for money. Arriving in their jets, no less.
So there’s not signal per se, indicating that buying should start. However, DOW was at a high of 14K one time. Now it’s at 7K. 50% retracement, over few months. It would mean that overall the direction might be whatever, this should pullback to the upside a little. For good or temporarily. Either way that would be a good buy.
Looking at the DOW chart, it shows it might go down. But it’s seeming unlikely based on new activity not shown on chart.
Today’s rally was a rally that turned into a selloff and then came back to again close green. Mixed reaction. Gave the impression that it should open green tomorrow. Some relief. Although, the DOW is still at 8420.00 or so. Not very high.
Saw this rally in the morning and bought some SPY calls. Toward the after noon those were. But closed very good. Bought at 4.98 and set a sell for 6. It closed at 6.3 but the practice account didn’t sell those. Don’t know why. Up a $1,020 by the end. Those are Dec. calls so they have some time. Although, last time I blew my account with MSFT calls, I thought there’s a whole month for them to go up and MSFT only went down. 🙂
So the market falls 200 points! Just when you think it’s fallen enough it must provide a little relief, it continues it’s own trend. This is extreme fear or worry driving the sellers. Also the traders are definitely actively trading and driving prices in sizable swings.
Another red day! Well it was hedge fund redemption day and a Friday. Two things in favor of selling off. As option traders, we would always want to be out of the market on the last weekend before expiration. Not sure, if that would affect the underlying security’s price or not.
Sweet rally! Wow nice on an unexpected day. I was expecting that either tomorrow (Friday) or Monday next week but mostly Tuesday. In my real trading account, the funds are frozen in a bad call with being all in. So can’t do anything until that frees up. There was a standing sell order set to sell my calls at .05. The day’s range shows to be 0.01 – 0.05. However, those calls didn’t sell. Don’t know what to say about that.
In a practice account, I’m up $2,000 dollars. From an initial capital of $5,000. Bought some AAPL Nov 95 calls, Some MSFT Nov 20 calls, and 1 GOOG Nov 300 call. Those all made good money today.
Market analysis is a weird thing. Most online traders are predicting an green tomorrow. It would seem to be likely.
This market is just getting more and more volatile. In reality, I keep hoping for an upturn soon. Mainly because of the MSFT calls I’m holding, but it hasn’t happened yet. On the other hand, it was over two weeks ago that I was hoping that MSFT would be way up by now. I was confident that these calls would not only be profitable but might even be doubling the investment. But I hadn’t ever seen the time value corrode in realtime before. So here we are and the time value is dropping fast. My sell to close order hasn’t executed in days despite constantly being lowered. An idea occurs to me. Given time, I could send more money to the brokerage and buy crap load of calls at .01 and then my .44 average would really be down to .1. Then I could get out at .05 and it would still save me half my original investment. However, while buying 200 contracts is not a problem at .01 (it’s only 200 dollars), the per-contract commission per trade will be is $100 (at .50 per contract). So there’s a big loss on that front. It would seem to be better to just leave it alone.
DOW closed lower on higher volume. Scary. I could have played some DXD calls or something like that and it would actually had made money. However, with each pullback in the downturn, it seems as if the bears have beat down enough and a rally is starting. Then the fear of losing money kicks in. Then it falls again. Only showing how much money could have been made. Since the market has been down for so long, it seems as if a good rally will take place soon enough. Simply because it has been down long enough and lot of investors and traders would be eager to get back to work. However, that’s what I thought two weeks ago and a rally took place but the markets fell right back.
The one comforting thought in this is that the DOW still made a higher low than the previous low. RSI headed down, Buying pressure turned into big selling pressure. Still less selling pressure than before. This candle was almost a black marubozu. Which is strong down candle. So it would seem a little pullback tomorrow should be in order. But again, some numbers are to be released tomorrow. Those might have already been priced in today’s fall or might still affect securities when released.
Well, the market went up in the morning but couldn’t just take all the bad news. Circuit City is doing under financially. It is not known yet, if the company will make it out of bankruptcy. Most companies do not make it out. Then there is GM. They are asking for money. They are almost as good as bankrupt. Not quite, but almost. They’re saying that they do not have operating funds for the next year. Some one said, this is the best time to buy GM. Nope! Why would you spend your money when:
It doesn’t go to GM, so doesn’t help them.
The company is going bankrupt. If they come back the stock will be different. This stock will be worthless.
The desperate need for help hasn’t been met with a definite help promise.
Then some investors fear the China deal for their financial package is not good enough and will let the Chinese economy crash as well as the rest of the ones that are crashing. Lot of red numbers!
Tomorrow, seems to be set to go up a little. However, someone said the job reports and other numbers come out tomorrow. If those aren’t nice, it might be Wednesday before we see a green day.
